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By Brian Lee Burke, team leader and licensed broker, the Kenna Real Estate Group at Keller Williams DTC. Numbers checked September 23, 2026.
Every week a buyer asks me the same question: should I buy now or wait for rates to come down? Here is the answer with the numbers, for the Denver metro and the Front Range, as of this week. Read the section you need. Then call or text 303-955-4220 and we run your numbers on a real house.
Where mortgage rates are right now
Freddie Mac's weekly survey for September 17, 2026 puts the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.95% and the 15-year at 6.26%. One week earlier the 30-year was 6.76%. On July 2 it was 6.43%. Rates rose half a point in eleven weeks. That is the national average for a borrower with strong credit and 20% down; your quote depends on your credit score, your down payment and the loan program. The forecasts published in January said rates would sit between 6% and 6.5% by now. They were wrong in the other direction. Nobody, including the people paid to forecast, has called a rate move on time.
What a lower rate saves on a Denver home
The Denver metro median close price in August 2026 was $594,495 (Denver Metro Association of Realtors). With 10% down, the loan is $535,046. Principal and interest on a 30-year loan:
| Rate | Principal and interest | Change from today |
|---|---|---|
| 6.95% (today) | $3,542 a month | |
| 6.45% | $3,364 | $178 less |
| 5.95% | $3,191 | $351 less |
| 5.45% | $3,021 | $521 less |
A full point is $351 a month on the median home. That is real money. It is also less than most buyers think, and it is not the only number that moves while you wait.
What happens to prices when rates fall
When rates drop, buyers who were waiting come back at the same time. The last time it happened, in late 2023, showings and offers rose within weeks and prices followed. On the median Denver home, a 3% price increase at a 6.45% rate gives you a payment of $3,465 a month. The rate drop saved $178; the price rise took back $101 of it, and you also need $1,783 more for the down payment. Waiting for a half-point drop is a bet that prices hold still while everyone else waits with you.
What the Denver market is doing this month
- Median close price, all homes: $594,495 in August, under $600,000 for the first time since spring.
- Detached homes: $649,500. Condos and townhomes: $370,000.
- Median days in the MLS: 27 for all homes, 45 for condos and townhomes.
- Closed sales fell 19% from July to August. Prices are within a fraction of a percent of last year.
Translation: sellers are waiting longer for offers than they did in 2024, and a home that has sat 30 days has a seller who negotiates. That is the opening.
What a seller can pay for you in Colorado right now
Seller concessions are money the seller pays toward your costs at closing. The loan programs cap them:
- Conventional: 3% of the price with less than 10% down, 6% with 10% to 25% down, 9% with 25% or more down.
- FHA: 6%.
- VA: 4% for concessions on top of normal closing costs.
- USDA: 6%.
On the median home that is $17,835 at 3% and $35,670 at 6%. A seller contribution covers closing costs, prepaid taxes and insurance, or a rate buydown. We ask for it on every home that has been on the market more than three weeks, and we ask for it in writing before you decide.
How a 2-1 buydown works and what it costs
A 2-1 buydown lowers your rate by 2 points in year one and 1 point in year two. In year three you pay the full note rate. The seller deposits the difference into an escrow account at closing and the lender draws from it each month. On the $535,046 loan at 6.95%:
- Year one at 4.95%: $2,856 a month.
- Year two at 5.95%: $3,191 a month.
- Year three on: $3,542 a month.
- Cost of the buydown: $12,442, paid by the seller inside the concession cap.
A buydown is the right tool when your income rises over two years or you plan to refinance. It is the wrong tool if the year-three payment breaks your budget, because year three arrives whether rates fall or not. Ask for the price cut instead if you plan to hold the loan.
Is it cheaper to buy now and refinance later?
Refinancing costs 2% to 6% of the new loan. On $535,046 that is $10,700 to $32,100, and the middle of the range is $16,051. If rates fall a full point to 5.95%, the refinance saves $351 a month and pays for itself in 46 months. Buy now and refinance later works under three conditions: rates fall at least three quarters of a point, you stay in the home past the break-even month, and your income and the home's value still qualify. We buy on today's payment. The refinance is the bonus, not the plan.
How much do you need down in Colorado?
- CHFA: a grant up to the lesser of $25,000 or 3% of the loan, or a 0% second mortgage up to the lesser of $25,000 or 4% of the loan, with a CHFA first mortgage. On the median home the grant is $16,051.
- metroDPA: up to 6% of the first mortgage as a 3-year forgivable second at 0% interest. Income limit $210,150 for any household size, no purchase price cap, no first-time buyer requirement. On the median home that is $32,103.
- FHA: 3.5% down with a 580 credit score. VA: 0% down for eligible veterans. USDA: 0% down in eligible areas outside the metro core.
Stack a seller concession on top of assistance and buyers with a 620 score close on Front Range homes with about $1,000 of their own money at the table. Our lender, Mike Oswald at Rate (NMLS 261003, Equal Housing Lender), runs the exact number for you in one call; you are free to use any lender.
What rate will you actually get?
The Freddie Mac number assumes a 780 credit score and 20% down. A 680 score on a conventional loan prices about half a point higher; a 620 score on FHA prices near the average because FHA does not price by score the same way. Points, lender credits and the loan program move the rate a quarter point either way. The only rate that matters is the one on your Loan Estimate, which a lender must give you within three business days of your application.
Does the season matter?
Yes. From November through January the Denver metro has fewer active buyers, longer days on market, and more sellers who agree to concessions. Spring brings more homes to choose from and more competition for each one. If your top priority is the price, winter. If it is the widest selection, April and May.
When waiting is the right answer
Wait if any of these is true:
- The payment on today's rate is more than 35% of your gross monthly income.
- You have less than two months of expenses in savings after the down payment and closing costs.
- You do not know where you will live in two years. Selling inside two years costs 6% to 8% of the price in fees and moving, and the home has to gain that much for you to break even.
- Your credit score is under 620. Ninety days on a credit plan raises it, and a higher score is worth more than any rate drop.
Every other reason to wait is a bet on a rate nobody can promise.
Six questions before you decide
- Why do I want to move, and what does staying another year cost me?
- What total monthly payment, including taxes, insurance and HOA, am I comfortable with?
- How much cash will I have left the day after closing?
- How long will I own this home?
- What are comparable homes in my area selling for this month, not listing for?
- On this specific house, what will the seller pay: price, repairs, closing costs or a buydown?
Bring those six answers to a 20-minute call and you leave with a yes, a no, or a date. Call or text the Kenna Real Estate Group at 303-955-4220. A live person answers. Not a robot, not a phone tree.