How Trump Will Flip the Housing Market

Former President Donald J. Trump remains one of the most divisive figures in American politics; whether you support or oppose him, there is no denying his significant impact on the markets. From Wall Street to Main Street, Trump's policies have historically had a profound effect on the economy. Now, with whispers growing louder about a possible second term or even just his influence over the Republican Party's economic direction, many are wondering: How will Trump impact the housing market?

Here, you will delve into that question, analyzing Trump's past housing-related policies, what his re-election or continued influence might mean for the real estate industry, and how it could impact the American dream of homeownership.

A Look Back: Trump's Impact on Housing During His Presidency

Before we speculate about the future, it's worth reflecting on what Trump has already done to impact the housing market from 2016 to 2020. While Trump didn't run on a housing platform, his administration made key moves that had a ripple effect on the market.

Deregulation and Its Effects

Trump prioritized deregulation across sectors, and housing was no exception. During his administration, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) rolled back several Obama-era fair housing regulations, limiting federal oversight.

The controversial repeal of the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) rule drew criticism from housing advocates but earned praise from developers and some suburban communities.

While the intent was to "unshackle" communities from federal influence, the outcome was mixed. Some observed accelerated suburban development, while others noted an increase in inequality of access to affordable housing.

Tax Cuts and the Real Estate Industry

In 2017, after Trump enacted the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it brought significant changes to corporate taxes and personal deductions—changes that had a direct impact on homeowners. The cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction hit blue states with high property taxes particularly hard, potentially discouraging homeownership in areas like New York, California, and New Jersey.

At the same time, real estate investors benefited from tax code provisions that favored pass-through entities and capital gains tax treatment. In other words, big players in the housing market won, and average homeowners? Not so much.

Trump 2.0: What He Might Do Differently This Time

If Trump returns to the White House or continues to pull Republican strings, we can expect more than just a repeat of past policies. Here's how experts believe Trump will flip the housing market going forward.

Supercharged Deregulation and Zoning Reform

In Trump's second term, expect a renewed push to eliminate federal housing restrictions. His 2020 campaign had already teased plans to reduce zoning laws further and incentivize local governments to build housing more quickly and affordably.

By targeting zoning, especially in the suburbs, Trump could radically alter where and how homes are built. Loosening these restrictions may lead to a construction boom, which could ease housing shortages in high-demand areas.

This could also lead to a surge in demand for moving companies, particularly in regions experiencing sudden new development or commercial migration. If affordable homes become more available in formerly exclusive neighborhoods, people will follow the opportunities, and the vans will follow.

Lower Interest Rates via Fed Pressure?

Although the Federal Reserve operates independently, Trump has a history of pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates. If re-elected, he may return to this strategy, Urging reductions in interest rates to boost the economy.

For the housing market, this could mean cheaper mortgages, spurring more buying and potentially heating an already volatile market. However, some economists warn this could also inflate another housing bubble, particularly if it's not supported by wage growth or inventory increases.

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Immigration Policy and Its Ripple Effect on Housing

Trump's immigration stance has always been a central part of his agenda, and it could have unexpected effects on housing.

Limiting Labor = Higher Construction Costs

Stricter immigration policies often mean fewer workers for labor-intensive industries. Home construction is one of them. A reduction in immigrant Labor could slow down housing projects and raise construction costs, tightening the supply.

That limited supply could drive up home prices once again, making it harder for first-time buyers to enter the market, even as mortgage rates drop.

This labor shortage may prompt some builders to prioritize high-margin developments, such as luxury housing, over much-needed affordable homes. The result? A housing market is even more bifurcated between the haves and have-nots.

The Investor Class

Another significant way Trump could impact the housing market is by favoring real estate investors again.

Expanding 1031 Exchanges and Real Estate Loopholes

Trump has consistently supported 1031 exchanges, a tax rule allowing investors to sell and reinvest in property without paying capital gains taxes. He may look to expand or further protect these provisions, keeping institutional investors satisfied.

While that may spur more real estate activity, it also creates fierce competition for regular homebuyers, especially in metropolitan areas where Wall Street-backed companies are purchasing single-family homes to rent out.

If investor activity spikes again, expect another surge in demand for moving companies, not from homeowners but renters. With homeownership becoming increasingly out of reach, millions could become long-term tenants, constantly on the move as rents continue to rise.

Revamping HUD and Affordable Housing

Trump's relationship with HUD was rocky. Ben Carson, who served as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, faced both praise and criticism for adopting a hands-off leadership approach. If Trump regains power, we could see a further decentralization of housing policy.

Public Housing and Vouchers

Trump's budgets repeatedly proposed cuts to public housing and rental assistance programs. A second term could bring deeper reductions or a complete overhaul, replacing federal assistance with block grants to states.

That could make housing more responsive to local needs, or more vulnerable to abuse and neglect, depending on where you live.

For lower-income Americans, the uncertainty could prompt migration to more housing-friendly states, further boosting demand for moving companies and reshaping population trends.

Could Trump Fuel a Suburban Renaissance?

In 2020, Trump frequently warned suburban voters that Democrats would "destroy" the suburbs by forcing affordable housing into wealthier areas. If elected again, he may reverse that approach entirely, doubling down on suburban growth.

Suburbs as the New Frontier

With remote work still a factor, Americans are increasingly seeking to live outside dense urban areas. Trump's policies may accelerate suburban sprawl, relax development rules, and invest in highways and backbuilders.

Suburbs could become the new "hot spots," especially in swing states like Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. These migration shifts would be a boon for moving companies, especially those that specialize in long-distance relocations or family-sized moves.

What Wall Street and Real Estate Pros Are Saying

Whether you like Trump or not, investors often see him as a business-friendly figure. His return could trigger big swings in the market.

Real Estate Stocks May Surge

REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) and homebuilder stocks often thrive in environments of deregulation and tax incentives. If Trump reclaims the Oval Office, markets could rally on expectations of a more favorable environment for real estate.

However, that might come at a cost: higher home prices, reduced affordability, and deeper divides between buyers and renters.

How Foreign Investment Might Change

Trump's foreign policy was characterized by nationalism and protectionism. However, when it comes to housing, foreign buyers remain significant players, particularly in states such as Florida, Texas, and California.

China, Canada, and International Demand

Trump could put new limits on foreign ownership of U.S. real estate, a move that might cool demand in hot markets. But it could also open the door for domestic buyers, provided inventory remains available.

If restrictions increase, cities with heavy foreign investment could see a dip in housing prices, creating a buying window for Americans who were once priced out.

Who Benefits and Who Doesn't?

While experts analyze spreadsheets and graphs, the real question is: how would Trump's actions in the housing market affect regular folks?

Winners

Real Estate Investors: Likely to benefit from tax breaks and deregulation.
Suburban Developers: Freed-up zoning could accelerate the development of new neighborhoods.
Moving Companies: More relocation activity across the U.S.

Losers

First-Time Buyers: Rising prices and competition from investors may push them out.
Renters: If public housing budgets shrink, rent burdens could rise.
Urban Planners: National policies might clash with local goals for density and sustainability.

Are We Ready for a Trump Housing Market?

Whether or not Donald Trump is elected in 2024, his continued influence on GOP policy is undeniable. He has reshaped the party's stance on regulation, taxation, and housing philosophy. If he gets another shot at the presidency or molds the next Republican agenda, expect bold changes in the housing market.

Those changes won't impact everyone equally. Some will benefit handsomely, while others may feel left behind. What is clear, however, is that the market won't remain still.

If you're planning to move, invest, or want to stay informed, now's the time to pay attention. Consult with financial advisors and research local zoning changes. And when the time comes, trust reputable moving companies to help you navigate the transition.

Our services cover everything from local and long-distance residential moves to commercial relocations, government and military moves, international shipping, and secure storage options.

Whether you're upsizing, downsizing, or relocating across the country, one thing is sure: Trump might not just change the market; he could flip it completely.

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