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KENNA NEWS DESK · MARKET UPDATE · NOVEMBER 5, 2026
By Brian Lee Burke, team leader, The Kenna Group at Keller Williams DTC.
The Denver housing market closed October 2026 with the fewest October sales since 2010, and it did it the same week Democrats won control of the House and the Senate. Colorado buyers and sellers want to know if the election changes anything. Here is our read: Washington changed, the Denver real estate numbers did not change overnight, and the mortgage rate still decides your payment. Below are the October numbers, the payment math at today's 7.18% rate and what to do this week.
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Send me new listingsWhat is my home worth?2,748 Denver metro closed sales, October Down 23.54% from October 2025 (DMAR) | $595,000 Metro median close price DMAR, October 2026 |
65% Sales with a seller concession Average concession: $12,557 | 7.18% 30-year fixed rate, Nov. 5 Freddie Mac; down three weeks in a row |
The election in one paragraph
The Associated Press reported early Wednesday, November 4, that Democrats won control of the House in addition to the Senate, after NBC News and CBS News projected the same result on election night. By Wednesday afternoon, CNBC reported from AP data that Democrats had flipped seven Senate seats and at least 24 Republican-held House districts, with nine House races and two Senate races still uncalled. The White House stays Republican through 2028, so Washington is now divided. We covered the election-night picture and our three 2027 scenarios in yesterday's News Desk story on the 2026 election and the Colorado housing market, and what Colorado's own ballot results mean for property taxes in Colorado election results 2026 for homeowners.
Denver housing market, October 2026: the numbers
The Denver Metro Association of REALTORS October 2026 Market Trends report, published November 4, shows fewer sales, more homes to pick from and sellers paying to close deals. It is not a price collapse: the detached median slipped less than 1% from a year ago.
| Denver metro, October 2026 | Number | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Closed sales | 2,748 | -23.54% vs. Oct. 2025; -8.58% vs. Sept. |
| Active listings at month end | 12,978 | +3.87% vs. Oct. 2025 |
| Median close price, all homes | $595,000 | |
| Median close price, detached | $645,000 | -0.64% vs. Oct. 2025 |
| Median close price, condos and townhomes | $375,000 | -3.25% vs. Oct. 2025 |
| Median days in MLS | 30 days | Detached 26, attached 48 |
| Months of inventory | 4.72 | Condos and townhomes: more than 7 |
| Sales with a seller concession | 65% | Average $12,557 |
| Close price to list price | 98.36% | Detached 98.55%, attached 97.69% |
Denver metro closed sales in October (DMAR)
October 2025 is backed out of DMAR's 23.54% decline. Three things stand out. Sales volume is the weak spot, not price. Condos and townhomes carry more than seven months of supply, a buyer's market by any measure. And two out of three sellers paid something at closing. See every month on our Denver real estate statistics page and city by city in the Colorado market reports.
Mortgage rates matter more than election headlines
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.18% on November 5, down from 7.24% the week before and the third weekly drop in a row (Freddie Mac release). A year ago it was 6.22%. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.57%.
Here is what the rate does to the payment on a $500,000, 30-year fixed loan. Principal and interest only; property taxes, insurance and HOA dues come on top. Run your own numbers on the Colorado mortgage calculator.
Monthly principal and interest on a $500,000, 30-year fixed loan
| Rate | Monthly principal and interest | vs. 7.18% today |
|---|---|---|
| 7.50% | $3,496 | $109 more |
| 7.18% (Freddie Mac, Nov. 5) | $3,387 | - |
| 7.00% | $3,327 | $60 less |
| 6.50% | $3,160 | $227 less |
| 6.00% | $2,998 | $389 less ($4,673 a year) |
The gap between 7.5% and 6.5% is $336 a month, $4,029 a year. That decides whether a lot of Colorado buyers qualify. The election does not set that number. The 30-year rate follows the 10-year Treasury yield, inflation, the Federal Reserve and investor demand for mortgage bonds. Read who is still buying at 7% and the 3-2-1 rate buydown that brings the first-year payment down.
Will a Democratic Congress make Colorado homes more affordable?
Only if bills pass, and only after the rules get written. A Democratic Congress has room to push housing supply, first-time buyer help and tax measures. A Republican president holds the veto, so anything that becomes law needs a deal, and a fight over federal spending pushes bond yields and mortgage rates the wrong way. Nothing changes for a buyer on November 5 because of the vote. What changes the market is three things we track every week: the rate, the number of homes for sale and buyer confidence.
How this affects you
Buyers. 65% of October sales came with a seller concession averaging $12,557. Ask for seller concessions instead of a price cut and use them for closing costs or a rate buydown, within your loan program's limits. Condo and townhome buyers have the most room, with more than seven months of supply; see the Denver condo market. Start with mortgage pre-approval and our $1,000 cash to close program.
Sellers. Fewer buyers are signing, so the first two weeks decide your sale. Price to the October numbers, not to 2022. A rate buydown offered on your listing gets more buyers to yes than a price cut of the same size. Get your number with a home value report and read the Colorado home seller guide.
Homeowners. The detached median is within 1% of last year, so most owners who are not selling lost little value on paper. Check what you would walk away with on the Colorado closing costs page before you list.
The Colorado market. Volume is the story: 2,748 closings is the slowest October since 2010. If rates keep easing, sales come back before prices move; if they climb, sellers keep paying concessions.
Three scenarios for 2027
We plan with scenarios, not one forecast. None of these is a prediction or a promise.
- Rates ease. If the 30-year rate moves toward 6%, the payment on a $500,000 loan drops $389 a month from today. More buyers qualify, sales recover first, and competition returns in the neighborhoods with the fewest listings.
- Rates hold above 7%. Buyers keep negotiating, sellers keep paying concessions and closings stay near this year's pace.
- The economy softens. If jobs or inflation turn the wrong way, buyers hold back even if prices stay steady. Colorado lost 1,400 jobs in August, per the DMAR report published in October, so we are watching this one.
Local supply matters as much as Washington: Denver, Highlands Ranch, Littleton, Centennial, Parker, Castle Rock, Aurora and Colorado Springs each move on their own inventory and price range.
What to watch out for
- Waiting for a headline. Rates move on inflation and bond data. Waiting for Congress to act is not a plan.
- The refinance plan. Buy now and refinance later works only if today's payment works without the refinance.
- Concession limits. Each loan program caps seller concessions. Ask your lender for the cap before you write the offer.
- Uncalled races. Seat totals were still moving on November 4. Projections are not certified results.
Sources
- Denver Metro Association of REALTORS, October 2026 Market Trends Report, Nov. 4, 2026; overview figures as shown on our Denver statistics page
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey and Mortgage Rates Decline for Third Consecutive Week to 7.18%, Nov. 5, 2026
- Associated Press (via PBS News), Democrats win control of U.S. House, in major rebuke to Trump, Nov. 4, 2026
- NBC News, Midterms 2026: Democrats win control of Congress, Nov. 3-4, 2026
- CBS News, 2026 midterm election updates, Nov. 3-4, 2026
- CNBC, Democrats sweep 2026 midterms, Nov. 4, 2026
- Payment math: standard 30-year fixed amortization on $500,000, calculated by The Kenna Group
This article is general information, not legal, tax, investment or mortgage-lending advice. The 2027 scenarios are The Kenna Group's planning scenarios, not forecasts, and no outcome is promised. Payment examples are hypothetical, cover principal and interest only and are not a loan offer, approval or rate quote; your terms depend on credit, down payment, loan program and the market. Election results are projections and are not certified. The Kenna Group is a group of real estate brokers with Keller Williams Realty DTC, LLC and earns income from real estate sales. Equal Housing Opportunity.
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