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NAR's 2026 housing forecast just got cut again, and higher mortgage rates are the reason. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun now expects existing-home sales and prices to grow 2% or less this year, Realtor.com reported on October 21, 2026. Last November he called for a 14% jump in sales. For buyers and sellers in Denver, Douglas County and Arapahoe County, higher-for-longer rates change the payment, the negotiation and the asking price. Here is the math on a typical Denver-metro home and what to do about it.
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2% or less NAR 2026 sales and price growth Lawrence Yun, via Realtor.com, Oct. 21 | 7.32% 30-year fixed rate average Freddie Mac, October 22, 2026 |
-5% New-home sales, 2026 vs. 2025 NAR forecast | $650,000 Denver metro detached median, 2026 to date DMAR, September 2026 report |
What NAR's Lawrence Yun changed in his 2026 forecast
Yun has now lowered his 2026 call twice. Last November he expected existing-home sales to climb 14% from 2025's three-decade low and the median price to rise 4%. In April he cut the sales number to 4%. Now, per Realtor.com, he expects sales and prices to grow 2% or less compared with 2025, and he expects sales of newly built homes to fall 5% from a year ago.
| NAR forecast for 2026 | Existing-home sales | Median price | New-home sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2025 | +14% | +4% | n/a |
| April 2026 | +4% | n/a | n/a |
| October 2026 | +2% or less | +2% or less | -5% |
The cause is mortgage rates. Yun had built his outlook on a 30-year rate averaging 6.5% this year. Instead, rates rose fast and have stayed above 7% since the last week of September. He told Realtor.com that fast-rising rates are "the big unpleasant event" of recent months. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed average at 7.32% on October 22, 2026, down from 7.40% the week before and up from 6.19% a year ago.
Other forecasters see the same picture. At the Mortgage Bankers Association's annual conference this month, MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said he expects rates near 7.3% for the rest of 2026 and above 7% through 2027. Realtor.com's own midyear forecast in July had existing-home prices up 1.2% for the year. We covered the 2027 view from Fannie Mae in Fannie Mae's 2027 forecast and the bond-market side in why mortgage rates went up.
The payment on a typical Denver metro home
DMAR's September 2026 report puts the year-to-date median close price for a detached Denver metro home at $650,000, the same as each of the past two years. With 10% down, that is a $585,000 loan. Here is what principal and interest look like at today's average, at the rate Yun first planned on, and at the 6% level he says would bring buyers back. These are example rates for comparison, not a rate offer. Your rate comes from a lender of your choice and depends on your credit, down payment and loan type.
| 30-year rate (example) | Monthly principal and interest | Difference vs. 7.32% |
|---|---|---|
| 7.32% (Freddie Mac average, Oct. 22) | $4,019 | - |
| 6.5% (Yun's original 2026 assumption) | $3,698 | $321 less a month |
| 6.0% (Yun's early-2027 scenario) | $3,507 | $511 less a month, $6,134 a year |
| 2-1 buydown, year 1 (5.32%) | $3,256 | $763 less a month |
| 2-1 buydown, year 2 (6.32%) | $3,629 | $390 less a month |
Add about $298 a month for property taxes at a 0.55% rate and about $233 for a $2,800 insurance policy, plus HOA dues where they apply. Run your own price, down payment and HOA in the Colorado mortgage calculator, and check this week's numbers on Colorado mortgage rates today.
How this affects you
Buyers. Fewer sales means more choice and more room to negotiate. DMAR counted 13,567 active Denver metro listings at the end of September and 4.76 months of inventory, and today kennarealestate.com shows 613 Douglas County homes and 497 Arapahoe County homes listed between $550,000 and $750,000. Ask for seller-paid help instead of only a lower price: on our $650,000 example, a 2-1 buydown costs the seller about $13,800 and cuts the first-year payment by $763, while a $13,800 price cut lowers the payment by $86. See how the 2-1 buydown works in Colorado and the 3-2-1 buydown program.
Sellers. Price for the payment buyers can carry at 7%, not for the price a neighbor got in 2024. At 7.32%, the payment that bought a $650,000 home at 6% buys about $567,000. Homes that start at the right price sell; DMAR's median time in the MLS was 32 days in September, while active listings on kennarealestate.com in Douglas County average 85 days. Offer a buydown or closing-cost credit in the listing so buyers see a lower payment up front. Start with a home value report and read how seller concessions work in Colorado.
Homeowners. If you hold a low-rate mortgage, it is worth real money to a buyer. Some FHA and VA loans can be taken over by the buyer; see homes with assumable mortgages. If you bought in the last year at 7% or more, set a refinance target now so you can move when rates fall.
The Colorado market. Denver metro prices have held flat while sales slowed: DMAR reported 2,849 September closings, the fewest for that month since 2008, and a 98.45% close-to-list price ratio. Arapahoe County's 2,542 active listings average $628,208 and Douglas County's 1,927 average $999,221 today. More context in why Denver has more sellers than buyers and Colorado inventory is piling up.
What to watch out for
- A forecast is not a rate. NAR and MBA forecasts describe the national average. Your rate is set the day you lock with a lender of your choice.
- Buydown fine print. A 2-1 buydown lowers the first two years only. Qualify and budget for the full note rate.
- Waiting has a cost too. If rates fall toward 6%, the sidelined buyers Yun expects to return come back at the same time, and the negotiating room shrinks.
- Overpricing in a slow market. A listing that sits collects price cuts. Price right in the first two weeks.
- Taxes and insurance. Hail-driven insurance and property tax changes move the payment as much as a quarter point. Get real quotes before you write an offer.
If mortgage rates drop toward 6% in 2027
Yun gave one bright scenario. Speaking to Realtors in Las Vegas, he said that if mortgage rates are closer to 6% at the start of 2027, buying activity picks up as sidelined buyers return. He also pointed out that in past recessions, other than the subprime crash, rates fell and home sales rose. MBA's Fratantoni expects rates to stay above 7% through 2027, so the two views point in different directions.
What that means for a Colorado buyer: on our $585,000 example loan, a move from 7.32% to 6% lowers principal and interest by $511 a month. A buyer who purchases now, with seller-paid concessions and room to negotiate, can refinance if rates fall, as long as the new rate covers the closing costs. A buyer who waits for 6% gets the lower rate but competes with every other buyer who waited. Read buy now or wait for rates? and what half a point costs each month.
What it means for a Colorado seller: if you plan to sell in spring 2027, prepare now. A home that is repaired, priced and ready when rate-sensitive buyers return sells first. If you need to sell this winter, the buyers still out there are serious, and DMAR's Amanda Snitker said fourth-quarter buyers face less competition than at any other time of year.
Douglas and Arapahoe county homes for sale today
| Area | Homes for sale | Average list price | Average days on market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas County | 1,927 | $999,221 | 85 |
| Arapahoe County | 2,542 | $628,208 | 82 |
| Highlands Ranch | 225 | $715,274 | 68 |
| Centennial | 281 | $659,386 | 68 |
| Parker | 592 | $852,728 | 81 |
| Castle Rock | 540 | $1,029,635 | 90 |
| Lone Tree | 68 | $998,611 | 83 |
| Littleton | 852 | $791,595 | 80 |
| Englewood | 287 | $607,116 | 77 |
| Aurora | 1,907 | $469,889 | 86 |
| Denver | 3,803 | $692,541 | 89 |
Active residential listings on kennarealestate.com on October 28, 2026. Below are Douglas County homes listed between $550,000 and $750,000, a price range that brackets the Denver metro detached median.
