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If you are a first-time home buyer in Colorado waiting for the "silver tsunami" of Baby Boomer homes to bring prices down, the numbers say you will wait a long time. Realtor.com projects 13.9 million homes freed up by older owners by 2036, but only about 38,000 a year are starter homes with 0 to 2 bedrooms. Meanwhile, the starter homes in Denver, Aurora and the Front Range that first-time buyers want, condos and townhomes, are on sale right now.
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13.9 million Homes freed up by 2036 By Baby Boomers and older owners, nationwide | 38,000 Starter homes a year 0-2 bedrooms, nationwide |
71% Are 3-4 bedroom homes Larger homes, not starters | -6.28% Denver condo + townhome prices Year to date vs 2025 |
Why the silver tsunami will not bring a wave of starter homes
Older owners mostly own 3- and 4-bedroom homes, and the few small-home owners own them free and clear and stay put. Of the 13.9 million homes, 9.9 million are 3- and 4-bedroom houses and 3.6 million have 5 or more bedrooms. Just 380,000 over the whole decade have 0 to 2 bedrooms. Those homes will help move-up buyers, not first-time buyers looking for a condo or a small house.
Homes older owners will free up by 2036, by size (millions)
Where first-time buyers have the edge today
Condos and townhomes in metro Denver are a buyer's market right now. Attached homes had 7.21 months of supply in September 2026, and the median attached price was $365,500 year to date, down 6.28% from last year. That is the starter market, and it is negotiable today, not in 2036. Read the full Boomer study breakdown in 13.9M Boomer homes are coming: what it means in Colorado.
A first-time buyer's plan for 2026
- Get pre-approved and learn the programs: CHFA down payment assistance, the $1,000 cash-to-close program and no-minimum-credit-score loans.
- Shop condos and townhomes first where supply is deepest: Denver homes under $400K and Aurora homes under $400K.
- Read the HOA: dues, reserves, special assessments and rental caps.
- Ask the seller to pay closing costs or a rate buydown; sellers expect it with 7.21 months of supply.
- Look at assumable loans: an assumable mortgage hands you the seller's lower rate.
Not ready this year? A rent-to-own path or a rent-vs-buy check shows the fastest route to owning.
